Analysis: The second wave is far less aggressive than the first

In recent weeks the Health Authority has continued to intensify its coronavirus testing campaign, with the number of swabs performed in just over two months exceeding 56,000.

An analysis by statistician Vincent Marmara showed that although there was an increase in cases, this so far seemed to be less aggressive than that which Malta experienced in the fifth and sixth weeks of the pandemic.

Health authorities are convinced that the increase in Covid-19 cases in recent days is a result of an increase in swab testing, so much that in recent days testing has reached around 1,700 swabs a day.

Statistician Vincent Marmara said that compared to the fifth and sixth weeks of the spread in Malta – when an average of 800 tests were performed per day – the increase in cases in recent days was less strong.

Whereas in the fifth week 2.6 per cent of positive cases were detected from the tests performed, in the last few days just under 1 per cent of the tests performed were positive.

” In the beginning the percentage was pretty high and here’s where you can see that during our first wave we had a number of positive cases which was higher than what we’re seeing right now. ”

Dr Marmara said the trend of cases in recent days, so far was lower than what we had at the height of the pandemic.

” Percentages in recent weeks are also rising but not at the same rate as our first wave. So even if we are in the second wave it can still be flattned and in reality as we are seeing so far in these percentages, this wave is flatter than the first wave we had. ”

Dr Marmara said that this trend could be maintained if people continue to follow the rules, among others, social distance.

” If people don’t follow the instructions the authorities are giving, then this percentage can definitely increase and can reach the same levels we had in the first wave with the risk of further increase. ”

He stressed that the mitigation measures announced by the authorities for the establishments to be opened should be followed in order to keep the rate of person-to-person infections stable.

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