COVID-19: The rate of person-to person transmission has decreased – BUT restrictions should not be relaxed

A scientific analysis by mathematical statistician Dr Vincent Marmara into coronavirus cases in the context of measures taken by the authorities gives an encouraging outline that the cases of local contact transmission are low. However, Dr Marmara warned that if people relax on the restrictions the n number of cases can increase dramatically.

His analysis shows that three weeks after the spread of the virus in Malta, the reproductive spread of Covid-19 through direct contact has been restricted. Where previously two persons transmitted the virus to five others, today the transmission by two persons is that of three others.

He noted that public cooperation is helping to reduce the rate of infection.

The measures taken and the fact that people are mostly observing directives by maintaining social distancing are proving effective and the drop in the rate of infections is encouraging when compared to other recent days.

Dr Marmara, who has specialised in epidemics and infections from a statistical standpoint, noted that despite the fact that during the last week there has been a 20% increase in cases compared to the previous week and the whole curve has been kept under control.

He compared the increase to that of other European countries over the last three weeks, including to Italy, the United Kingdom and Spain. He said that cases in Italy have quadrupled, in Spain these have increased by 12 times compared to the previous week while in the UK this has increased by six times when compared to the previous week.

Once more he warned that if the public relaxes on restrictions there will be a dramatic increase as has happened in other countries.

He said if this relaxation transpires the country will be helping a reproduction rate to increase and the fact that it is currently low, this does not mean it will remain low for sure.

Regarding the restriction of vulnerable persons to their own homes, the result of this can only be analysed in seven days’ time.

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