The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is forecasting that Malta will reach the peak of Covid-19 on 22nd April, that is, in 12 days’ time.
The IHME analysts have also forecast that when this pandemic peak is reached, the country will be equipped with enough hospital beds.
However, the analysis is based on the understanding that people continue to strictly observe social distancing throughout May. This means that if public discipline declines, these forecasts will not remain relevant.
According to the analysis, at the pandemic peak Malta will require 33 beds and eight additional beds in ITU, together with seven ventilators. It is also estimated that by the first days of August, 19 persons will have perished from Covid-19.
Asked about these forecasts during the programme ‘Dissett’, Deputy Prime Minister Chris Fearne said the Government does not wish to make populist announcements but is following scientifically-based forecasts.
The IHME forecast analysis can be seen on here.